Economics of the Mineral Industries
Lesson 14
Objectives:
a) Student will name four determinants
that effect mineral demand .
b) Student will explain the terms: short-run,
long-run, and very-long-run in the mineral market.
c) Student will discuss relationship of
main products, byproduct, coproducts.
d) Student will explain how secondary products
relate to the mineral market.
e) Student will explain the difference
in old scrap and new scrap.
f) Student will identify the factors that
influence a horizontal and upward curve in the supply and demand
curves models.
Mineral commodities
are normally separated into three generic classes- metals, nonmetals,
and energy minerals including oil and gas - and encompass a large
number of different substances. Some are extracted from large
open pits, others are dug out of underground mines or pumped
from deep well, and still others are processed for the sea. Extraction
and processing can be relatively uncomplicated and inexpensive,
though in most instances, modern sophisticated technology is
required and costs are high. Some mineral commodities are produced
mainly as by products of other commodities.Some are recovered
in large quantities from new and old scrap. Some are found only
in a few locations and traded world wide; others are produced
in many different countries. Some are sold by numerous firms
at fluctuating prices determined on competitive commodity exchanges,
while others are produced by only a few firms and sold at a table
producer prices.
Demand on Minerals
Minerals are in demand because they posses
certain qualities or attributes, such as strength and resistance
to corrosion. These are seldom final goods, but are essential
to the manufacturing of final consumer and producer goods. Demand
is set for the attributes of the minerals rather than the a mineral
commodities market and therefore the minerals can be substituted
for others.
There are thousands of factors that affect
mineral demand.- cold weather in the northeast of the United
States, World Bank loan to Brazil to build a dam for hydroelectric
power station.,etc. One can not determine all the factors but
one needs to decide which features are of most importance. The
answer about which factors to consider must look at time and
purpose also.
The determinants often considered in mineral
demand studies are;
Income is
one of the most important variables affecting metal demand. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) or industrial output is employed for this
purpose. A good example is when assessing the demand for copper
wire we might use the production of electrical and electronic
equipment to capture the effect of income fluctuations.
A mineral's own price is also normally
an important determinant of demand. Demand tends to fall with
an increase in price and rise with a decline in price. This comes
from the high price of the mineral causing the final product
to increase in price. The increase in final product prices causes
the decline in the final product use. Manufacturers also make
the effort to substitute another mineral commodity whose price
has not risen. It does take time for the substitution process
to happen. This may requires training, new equipment, or different
techniques to complete the substitution process. This may result
in very little cost savings but usually is more noticeable over
a several years.
The demand for a mineral commodity may
be affected by prices other than its own. An example would be
the higher oil prices in the 1970's which increased the demand
for coal and natural gas. In some instances the fall in the price
of one commodity may actually increase to demand for another.
An example of this is the fall of steel prices whichmay make
the use of tin plate more viable. Since tin plate is primarily
composed of steel is stimulates the demand for tin.
New technology
can alter demand in several ways. An example is the amount of
aluminum in a beer can is being reduced because of the newer
technology used. New technologies can change the number and size
of end-use markets. This is found in the case of the development
of the automobile. This invention created a greater market for
petroleum, steel and lead. Measuring technological change is
difficult and often is ignored as a determinant. Often technology
is figured in the time factor as technology changes over time
and can be expected to be part of the overall changes.
Government policies, regulations, and actions
constitute another major determinant of metal demand. This is
illustrated best when government polices lead to war. In peacetime,
changes in government expenditures on education, defense, research
and development change the output mix of the economy. Social
welfare policies effect income distribution and economic growth.
America's economy
more back grounders...Jan
10th 2002
From Economist.com
After nine years of robust growth, America's
economic bubble burst in 2000. Technology shares plunged in the
spring, foretelling a sharp economic slowdown later that year.
The Fed, led by Alan Greenspan, responded by slashing interest
rates. But the economy failed to pick up in the first half of
2001.
The terrorist attacks of September 11th couldn't have come at
a worse time. All the key indicators were flashing red: consumer
confidence was deteriorating, corporate profits diving, stock
prices falling and industrial production down. America may have
already been in recession. Now it must pay for the huge economic
damage caused by the attacks and shoulder the long-term effect
on business. Already whole industries are in trouble; bankruptcies
and unemployment are predictably up. That said, there are signs
that overall consumer spending could hold up.
The recession may prove deeper and longer than most economists
(and Wall Street) think. A combination of aggressive monetary
easing and fiscal stimuli could spur a recovery-though state
fiscal policy and Tom Daschle, Senate majority leader and Democrat-in-chief,
could undermine Mr. Bush's plans.(http://www.economist.com/library/back
grounders/displaybackgrounder.cfm?bg=937843)
The Demand Curve
The demand for mineral commodities is responsive
to business cycle fluctuations changes. When the economy is healthy,
dollars are spent on cars, homes, refrigerators, new machinery,
and transportation, hence the mineral demand is greater. The
mineral demand grows and declines in direct relation to the economy.
In analyzing mineral markets, we at times
focus on one particular variable and try to assess how it alone
affects demand. For example, if theUS economy is expected to
grow by 4% over the coming year, aluminum firms need to know
how this will alter their demand.
Another variable of special interest is
price, particularly a commodity's own price. The
demand curve shows how much of a commodity can be sold at various
prices over a year or some other time interval, on the assumption
that income, the prices of substitutes, and other determinants
of demand remain fixed at certain designated prices.( SME Mining
Engineering Handbook, Tilton, John.pg 48)
Intuitively, one would expect demand to
fall as the price rises. There can be exceptions, when the demand
curve remains vertical implying that the consumers want a particular
amount of the commodity, no more , and no more less, regardless
of its price. The horizontal demand curve implies that above
a particular price there is no demand and below that price the
demand is insatiable. The upward slope on the demand curve implies
that consumers increase their demand as price goes up.
The demand curve does not indicate how
the effect of price change varies with respect to time. Rather,
it assumes, one specific adjustment period. Economists typically
distinguish between (1) the short run, a period sufficient
for firms to adjust output by altering their labor, raw material,
and other variable inputs, and 2) the long run, a period
long enough for firms to vary their fixed inputs, such as plant
and equipment, as well as variable inputs. (SME Mining Engineering
Handbook, Tilton, John.pg 49)
In the mineral markets, it is useful at
time to consider what we will call the very long run, which
provides time not only for all inputs to change, but also for
the development and introduction of any new technology induced
by price changes. At the other end of the spectrum, the immediate
run is needed in addressing certain mineral issues. It provides
for adjustment that firms find it infeasible to alter their output..
Only changes in inventory are possible.
There is no one answer to all situations.
New capacities for some commodities can be built more quickly
that others. The immediate run would normally last for
more than several months and the short run for more than several
years. The shift from long run to very long run is more difficult
to pin down. Some new technology induced by a price change may
occur very quickly but other developments may take decades.(
SME Mining Engineering Handbook, Tilton, John.pg 50)
Metal Supply
Many mineral commodities,
such as oil, coal, bauxite and iron, are typically extracted
as single or individual products. Others are produced as joint
products. For instance gold is often found in copper deposits
and nickel sulfide mines may produce copper as well.
Main products, coproducts, or byproducts may be recovered where joint
production occurs. The main product is very important and economic
success depends upon it . The byproduct does not influence the
output of the mine. When the prices of two or more joint products
affect the output they are coproducts.
Once processed and consumed in the production
of final goods, some mineral commodities, specifically metals,
are often recovered and reused. Most of the gold ever produced
is still in use. Recycling is called secondary production, or
because they are inferior but because the scrap they are made
from is not the original or primary source of the product.
Individual Products
The rise of the price of a mineral commodity
normally increase its supply, while a fall in price reduces its
supply. It takes time for mines to respond to the supply prices
as new mines may need to be developed or build processing capacities.
It can take up to 7 years to fully respond and be in production.
Companies can operate as long as they are recovering their out
of pocket expenses but as soon as the processing plants and big
equipment have to be replaced the cease production.
Cost of labor and other inputs used in
extraction affect profitability and then in turn, supply. Advances
in technology that reduce the costs of extraction or processing
also affect the mineral supply. More powerful blasting techniques,
bigger haul trucks and strong shovels have helped keep the commodities
at an even or lower price. Strikes, mine accidents, and political
uprisings can interrupt production or transportation of the supply.
Environmental regulations can increase costs and reduce supply.
Some international companies require nationals be the managers
or that operational supplies need to be purchased within that
country and this can reduce efficiency which increases costs.
Government can subsidize mines and increase the supply also.
When a few countries or firms control
most of a minerals production, or in the case of oil, a cartel
or producer's price is developed. This can alter the nature of
the supply. Often state owned or government owned mining companies
are less concerned with a profit and more concerned with maintaining
employment and other public goals.
Supply = price, wages, cost of energy,
and strikes
When the supply curve is upward, the prices
increase with demand. When the supply curve is horizontal, it
indicates the producers are willing to produce as much as they
have at a particular price and nothing below that price. When
the supply curve is horizontal it indicates that the producers
are willing to supply a specified amount, no more, no less ,no
matter the price. A downward slope implies the producer will
offer more to the market the lower the price.
State owned mines may continue to operate
when they are at full capacity even if it would be more profitable
to reduce output, rather than lay off employees. Some may even
try to increase production when the price falls if they feel
responsible for maintaining their country's foreign exchange
earnings. ( SME Mining Engineering Handbook, Tilton, John.pg
52)
The difference in the supply curve and the demand curve is that
the change in a supply curve reflects a change in price while
a shift in the demand curve reflects other determinants (strikes,
wage, political unrest, etc). Don't confuse supply with consumption
or production.
In the immediate run, the companies don't
have the time to alter their rate of production. the supply cannot
exceed the production, or inventories. If the demand is weak,
they can build up their inventories for sale at as later time.
Firms in the producer
markets quote the price they are prepared to sell their product.
These markets, dominated by a few major sellers, have relatively
stable prices, though when the demand is weak, actual prices
may fall below quoted prices as a result of discounting and other
concessions. Steel, magnesium and aluminum are a few of the metals
sold at producers markets.
In competitive
markets, price is determined by the interplay of supply and
demand and is free to fluctuate as much as necessary to clear
the marketplace. In the competitive market price is often set
by the London Metal Exchange ( LME) or the New York Commodity
Exchange ( Comex). tungsten, silver, andgold are metals sold
in competitive markets.
Make note: Producers are price takers and
have no influence on the going market price. They can control
their own supply though.
In the competitive market curve, the very
low prices indicate that no supply is forthcoming as production
is withheld from the market in anticipation of higher prices
in the future. At some point the price rises, supply begins to
come onto the market. In the producer's market, the firms faithfully
adhere to the producer price. If this is not the case, if some
or all of the firms sell at a discount, the curve drops to lower
quantities.
In the short run, producers have a chance
to change the output but not the capacity. In the long run, new
mines can be developed, wells drilled, and processing facilities
built. Firms can also expand the capacity of existing operations.
In the very long run even the constraints imposed by the existing
deposits no longer holds, as firms have time to conduct exploration
and newer technologies can allow for new types of deposits to
be explored.
Byproducts and Coproducts
Some metals such as silver, gold, and molybdenum
are main products at some mines and coproducts at other mines,
and byproducts at still other mines. The price of gold determines
if the metal is to be the main product or the byproduct. It is
sometimes assumed that byproducts are free goods.
Coproducts
When two metals must be produced to make a mine feasible they
are called coproducts. Joint production costs must be shared
as no coproduct can support the mine alone. This means that the
coproduct must cover its specific production plus some of the
joint costs.
Byproducts
Byproducts are limited by the output of the main product. The
byproduct cannot exceed the physical quantity of the actual mineral.
The price of the main product stimulates the supply in the long
run and causes the supply curves to look similar. A high byproduct
price may drive exploration and new technologies that allows
for greater recovery. Another important difference between byproduct
and main product is that the only costs for the byproducts affect
the byproducts supply. The main product handles the costs for
the joint production and the main product.
Since byproduct production tends to occur first where the main
product ores are particularly rich in the byproduct mineral or
are for other reasons less costly to process, the marginal costs
specific to byproduct production usually rise with output.
Secondary Production
Secondary production is recycling new and old scrap. New scrap
comes from manufacturing of new goods. An example would be aluminum
that is left over making the rounds for aluminum can tops. Old
scrap is a product that has come to the end of its useful life
because it is obsolete or worn out. Aluminum pop cans are old
scrap.
*20% of the US aluminum consumption is
recycled .
*25% of the copper consumption is recycled.
*50% of lead consumption is from recycled products.
Total Supply
Individual products, main products, byproducts,
and secondary from old and new scrap are all potential contributors
to a mineral commodities total supply. Improving the efficiency
of production lowers the amount of new scraps but does not lower
the total supply potential.
Market Instability
Mineral markets are known for their feast
-or-famine nature. The United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development has pushed for an integrated Program for Commodities
for the benefit of producers in developing countries and to stabilize
the commodity markets. The program has had its difficulties but
it reflects a concern on the part of producing and consuming
countries over the instability that plagues mineral markets.
A highly concentrated market structure
where one or a few major producers dominate the market and set
a producer price does not however, eliminate market instability
. This is because the following three characteristics of short
run metal supply and demand, which are responsible for the market
instability, are present no matter how concentrated the market.
First , in a producers market , the commoditity
curve ends when they no longer have supply to meet the demand.
Second, the demand also tends to be price
inelastic in the short run. The slope of the curve will be very
steep in this case.
Third, the demand is highly elastic to
changes in the national income over the business cycle. Construction
, transportation, capital equipment and consumer durables are
sensitive to the fluctuations in the business cycle. During a
recession, these four sectors suffer far more than the economy
as a whole. During a boom, their sales soar.
In a producers market, the shift in demand
causes quantity sold and the price move together on the same
curve. When one is down so is the other, and this causes high
revenues and profits to be highly volatile.
In a producers market, if all firms adhere
to one producer price, there is no price instability. In general,
the price instability will be minimal.
Commodities
Of approximately 100 non fuel mineral commodities
produced worldwide, 70 are mined in the United States. Domestic
production represents many thousands of operators, ranging from
small sand and gravel producers, to very large but few multinational
aluminum producers of copper, steel, aluminum, and other metals
and chemicals. For some commodities, there is little or no US
production.
Stone was probably the first mineral used
by man. From the stone, man was able to produce, tools, shelter
and weapons. It has progressed on to using minerals in their
natural form such as copper and gold. As we discussed in the
history of mining Chapter 1, when man began the process of smelting,
weapons and shelter began to change its value and form.
Cartel action of certain world petroleum
producers caused energy price increases that profoundly affected
the world economy, including minerals productions and use. As
the price of energy increased, the industrial economy underwent
structure change to lower manufacturing costs and conserve energy.
A good example is when the auto makers created compact cars to
meet mandated fuel efficiency standards, making increased use
of lighter minerals such as aluminum, magnesium and plastics.
In the early 1970's, growth in the mineral
industry contributed to the economy. (Hodel 1986). However in
the mid 1970's the recession that followed the petroleum embargo
and sharp energy price increases affected the mineral industry,
especially in the the metals sector. Employment and productions
in the mineral industry fell. Concern for the environment became
a major factor of the minerals industry during this decade. The
high cost of compliance, in addition to the increased cost of
energy made some facilities obsolete and forced closures. (SME
Mining Engineering Handbook, Cammarota Jr., Anthony .pg 63)
In the 1980's, mineral production, prices,
and employment fell, especially in the metals sector. In the
economic rebound that followed, the minerals industry recovered
better than the economy.
Foreign competition in metal increased.
In addition to the higher energy cost, rising environmental regulation
costs, and the recession, the US minerals industry has been affected
by high labor cost, declining ore grade and reserves of some
minerals, and relative value of the US dollar vs. other world
currencies and the trend of the developing countries to process
their own ores into industrial products and finished goods.
Commodities that are related to manufacturing
and the steel industry or that have been impacted by the environmental
constraints tend to show a decline in demand. The up trend in
demand has been in commodities that have a wide variety of uses.
Offshore exploration may augment the supply
of minerals. The United States declared an Exclusive Economic
Zone (EEZ) that extends 200 nautical miles offshore. Exploration
has uncovered many mineral occurrences including sand and gravel
which are low-value materials. These marine deposits may be in
a good competitive position because of land restrictions that
limit on shore development and the characteristics of marine
sand.
Base Metals-
usually the source of a number of byproduct metals
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Tin
Precious Metals- Silver
and Gold were considered monetary metals and the prices
were controlled or manipulated by the government. They represent
wealth.
Silver
Gold
Platinum-group Metals- platinum, palladium,
rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, osmium
Ferrous Metals - Iron
and steel are the fundamental metals of every modern industrial
country in the world
Manganese
Chromium
Nickel
Cobalt
Molybdenum
Columbium Tantalum
Tungsten
Vanadium
Silicon
Light Metals - In
the age of energy conservation and aerospace, light metals have
achieved a prominent place in our industrial society. These metals
are relatively new in their industrial applications, having been
isolated in elemental form less than 200 years ago.
Titanium
Aluminum
Magnesium
Beryllium
Construction Materials- For the most part these are industrial minerals.
They are high volume and low-unit-value materials that are usually
mined and consumed locally.
Sand and Gravel
Stone
Cement
Gypsum
Asbestos
Agricultural Commodities- Agricultural minerals, or fertilizers, are bulk
commodities with world wide trade patterns. No living organism
can exist without phosphorus, potassium, or nitrogen. Phosphorous
must be present in adequate amounts in living cells for cell
division to take place.
Phosphate
Potash
Nitrogen
Byproduct Commodities-These metals are produced as a byproduct of major
commodities and therefore their production and supply do not
necessarily reflect demand.
Gallium
Selenium
Germanium
indium
Advanced Materials-Those materials developed over the last thirty
years or so, and being developed at present, that exhibit greater
strength, higher strength, density ratios, greater hardness,
and or one or more superior thermal, electrical, optical or chemical
properties when compared to traditional properties.
Heat resistant, wear resistant, or corrosion
resistant
Alumina
Zirconia
Yttria
Thorough
Low density- greater strength
Aluminum alloys
Amorphorous alloys
Magnetic alloys
Stronger lighter weight, more heat resistant
Fibers of: carbon, boron, silicon, carbide
Aluminum silicas
Polymers
Electronic, optical, and magnetic materials
Gallium
Germanium
Indium
Cadmium
Arsenic
Zirconium
Resources
Economic Overview of the Nevada Mining
Industry
http://www.nevadamining.org/economics/reports/
Glossary
Commodity
Main product-
The product that alone makes the mine viable.
Coproduct-
The result of two or more joint products that influence the output
of the mine
Byproduct- a
product that is unimportant and has no influence on the viability
of the mine.
Producer's Market-Firms
quote the price they are prepared to sell their their product.
Competitive
Market- The price is determined by the interplay of supply and
demand and is free to fluctuate as much as necessary to clear
the marketplace
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